Storm Chasing 2009...is on the way!

April 17-18, 2004, first chase ever!

I just bought a 96 Hyundai and am looking forward to chasing this spring.

From my house in Duluth, MN:
to Fort Dodge, Iowa: only 6 hours- roundtrip 12 hours

to Grand Island, Nebraska: only 11 hours- roundtrip 22 hours

to Watertown, South Dakota: only 6 hours- roundtrip 12 hours

to Wausau, Wisconsin: only 4 hours- roundtrip 8 hours

Warm Air Advection KDSM, KPIR, KDLH

SPRING IS ON THE WAY...

Pacific Flow looking out to end of January on the 850mb warm/cold air advection GFS extended model. Let's hope that a strong ridge develops and sits over the northern Plains and influences Minnesota and ushers in spring-like weather soon!

So I am revved up to begin my severe weather project. More than likely will center around Wisconsin and warm fronts affecting the state. Looking at the 850 pattern and upper level setup, and distinct patterns that bring warm air advection to Wisconsin.

Thinking about Tornado Alley and springtime thunderstorms:
For Wednesday January 21st-Tuesday January 27th
Weather Forecast

Pierre, South Dakota KPIR
Tonight: Clear skies, west nw wind 8-11mph, lo:21
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, west nw wind 5-7mph, hi:18, lo:18
Thursday: Mix of sun and clouds am, increase clouds pm, hi:35, lo:16
Friday: Mostly cloudy, hi:20, lo:9
Saturday: Light snow after 6am, hi:15, lo:8
Sunday: Light to moderate snow continues, hi:13, lo:4
Monday: Light snow continues, hi:15, lo:8
Tuesday: Snow ending after 12pm, Mix of sun and clouds, hi:20

Duluth, Minnesota KDLH
Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy, west wind 10-15, lo:13
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, west 10, hi:26, lo:15
Thursday: Mostly sunny, inc. clouds, light snow 6pm, hi:19, lo:-3
Friday: AM Snow Showers, PM Sun hi:6, lo:-10
Saturday: Partly cloudy, hi:5, lo:-15
Sunday: Partly cloudy, hi:6, lo:-15
Monday: Partly cloudy, hi:9, lo:-9
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hi:12

Des Moines, Iowa KDSM
Tonight: Partly cloudy, south sw wind 7-9, lo:15
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, west wind 8-10, hi:33, lo:19
Thursday: Mostly sunny, hi:38, lo:17
Friday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, hi:22, lo:8
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, snow starts after 6pm, hi:15, lo:5
Sunday: AM Light snow showers, hi:12, lo:6
Monday: Light snow starts after 4am 2-4inches possible, hi:15, lo:4
Tuesday: Snow ending after 12am, Mix of sun and clouds, hi:19

A Niche for Oklahoma Forecasting

Let's look at Oklahoma. I'm impressed with the model's output and where the Sooner State lines up. Forecasting for Oklahoma City, OKLet's look at the current sat image. And reports from around the state: 12pm

NW Oklahoma/Panhandle- Mix of sun and clouds- temp 42-52

SW Oklahoma- Cloudy conditions- temp 48-53

Central Oklahoma- Increasing clouds, partly sunny- temp 48-55

NE Oklahoma- Increasing clouds, partly sunny- temp 50-58

SE Oklahoma- Mostly sunny- temp 56-66

We can see a cold front beginning to press through already going through the nw part of the state. Moisture is limited, so not much precip expected, even as the model shows. The biggest warm up looks to occur heading into Saturday with warm air advecting in from the west.

High temp on Saturday forecasted to be: 49 degrees

Models hint to Warmer Air...

Duluth, Minnesota Forecast

Monday: Cloudy, Snow after 12pm, east wind 5-10mph, hi:11, lo:-25
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, west wind 10-15 mph, hi:-5, lo:-10
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, light snow, hi:-4, lo:-20
Thursday: Partly cloudy, hi:-5, lo:-15
Friday:Mostly sunny, hi:7, lo:-10
Saturday: Mostly sunny, hi:10, lo:5
Sunday: Sct. snow showers, hi: 15

The GFSX Model has forecasted highs in Duluth Sun:26, Mon:29
Spring isn't too far away yet, just a few cold chills, then warm air advection and thunderstorms!

Looking into Sunday, a pronounced ridge is building over the west coast, and intensifies with warmer air gliding all the way up into Canada.

Another look at 850mb winds, and we can see the warmer air pressing into Minnesota just shy of the Northland. At the surface, strong westerly winds will blow in the warmer air.

Cold, Snow, then a Minnesota Weekend Warm Up?

More clouds today, then snow will soon fall after 12pm. Nothing too major in accumulation, but enough to make it slippery outside. Soonafter tomorrow night around 2am, skies will clear as high pressure moves in, wind switches to the north, and will begin to blow in really cold air!

Cold Air that it is...Nice CAA, dropping temps on overnight to -25, and then for highs on Tuesday, struggling to make it to the zero mark. Duluth should experience some nice sunshine most of the day with west winds 10-15mph.

Nice Pacific Flow

Warmer Air will ride northward at the surface as a ridge sets up over the west. It appears a Pacific flow is developing also. Strong west/northwesterly winds off of the Pacific Ocean will ride through Canada through the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. Milder air will make it's way into southern Minnesota with temps above the freezing mark, early in the morning then throughout the day. It's a nice wish just to imagine the warm air advection making it to the Twin Ports and before you know it, severe weather outbreak.

Duluth Sunshine Monday

A lot of sunshine is on tap for Monday as dryer air works into the region. Temps will either be in the single digits or even in the teens. Cold but wind will be out of the southwest, nice! As high pressure settles in over the south, the wind directions advects warmer air into the Northland. Well relatively warmer air. How about springtime severe weather in Minnesota?
zz

Looking for Severe Weather in the Southeast

On Tuesday it looks like some severe weather may break out heading into the deep south. Surface Temps will be in the upper 60's and 70's, along with a very moist layer of air the surface with dewpoints in the 60's range. We have winds 50-70kts in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Wind shear will be key here. Unfortunately, instability will be the limiting factor for any type of severe weather outbreak. If not enough sun, this will limit how unstable the atmosphere will get, thus limiting the severe potential. We will have to watch how this model pans out, and see how the atmosphere sets up on Tuesday.

• Low pressure near Nashville by 2-3pm
• Surface temps 60's-70's
• Surface dewpoints 50's-60's
• Surface winds 20-30kts, S/SE
• Showers and thunderstorms ongoing from LA to TN ahead of cold front
• Warm front located from central TN to NC